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- (546c) Leveraging Policy to Maximize Profitability in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pathways
2025 AIChE Annual Meeting
(546c) Leveraging Policy to Maximize Profitability in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pathways
The decarbonization of aviation presents significant challenges as the sector's emissions continue to grow, currently accounting for 2.5% of global carbon emissions according to IEA (2023). Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has emerged as a promising solution by utilizing biogenic carbon already circulating in the natural carbon cycle rather than introducing new fossil-based carbon. However, SAF implementation involves complex considerations across technology selection, feedstock choice, and process configurations. This study evaluates three major ASTM-approved SAF production pathways: Fischer-Tropsch (FT), Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), and Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ), then takes a deeper dive into how decarbonizing within the HEFA pathway can leverage policy incentives to increase SAF profitability.
Using Sesame Sustainability's modeling platform, we conducted a comparative analysis of emissions profiles, production costs, and economic viability across these technologies. Our emissions assessment incorporates upstream emissions from feedstock harvesting, biogenic carbon assumptions, and fuel conversion processes. Results indicate that Ethanol AtJ and Soybean Oil HEFA demonstrate comparable emissions profiles, while FT processing with forest residue feedstock achieves significantly lower emissions. The implementation of carbon capture technology with FT processes can yield negative carbon intensity values, aligning with established frameworks such as CORSIA.
Further analysis of the commercially dominant HEFA pathway reveals specific decarbonization opportunities within the production process. We examined four potential improvements: decarbonization of process heat, solar electricity integration, green hydrogen substitution, and carbon capture implementation. Our findings indicate that carbon capture on process heat offers the most economically viable opportunity, potentially reducing emissions by as much as 7.75 g CO₂e/MJ (25.5%) while generating net savings of $0.18/gallon under Washington state incentives. Conversely, green hydrogen substitution, despite reducing emissions by 2.6 g CO₂e/MJ, increases costs by $1.28/gallon even after incentives, making it economically prohibitive in most contexts.
The U.S. policy landscape provides crucial economic support through federal and state initiatives. The Clean Fuel Production credit (effective January 2025) offers scaled incentives based on emissions reduction profiles. State-level policies vary significantly, with Washington offering up to $2.00/gallon for optimized SAF pathways, while other states like Nevada prioritize production capacity investments over per-gallon incentives. This regional variation highlights the importance of location-specific decarbonization strategies.
Using Sesame Sustainability's modeling platform, we conducted a comparative analysis of emissions profiles, production costs, and economic viability across these technologies. Our emissions assessment incorporates upstream emissions from feedstock harvesting, biogenic carbon assumptions, and fuel conversion processes. Results indicate that Ethanol AtJ and Soybean Oil HEFA demonstrate comparable emissions profiles, while FT processing with forest residue feedstock achieves significantly lower emissions. The implementation of carbon capture technology with FT processes can yield negative carbon intensity values, aligning with established frameworks such as CORSIA.
Further analysis of the commercially dominant HEFA pathway reveals specific decarbonization opportunities within the production process. We examined four potential improvements: decarbonization of process heat, solar electricity integration, green hydrogen substitution, and carbon capture implementation. Our findings indicate that carbon capture on process heat offers the most economically viable opportunity, potentially reducing emissions by as much as 7.75 g CO₂e/MJ (25.5%) while generating net savings of $0.18/gallon under Washington state incentives. Conversely, green hydrogen substitution, despite reducing emissions by 2.6 g CO₂e/MJ, increases costs by $1.28/gallon even after incentives, making it economically prohibitive in most contexts.
The U.S. policy landscape provides crucial economic support through federal and state initiatives. The Clean Fuel Production credit (effective January 2025) offers scaled incentives based on emissions reduction profiles. State-level policies vary significantly, with Washington offering up to $2.00/gallon for optimized SAF pathways, while other states like Nevada prioritize production capacity investments over per-gallon incentives. This regional variation highlights the importance of location-specific decarbonization strategies.