(118c) A Framework for Climate Risk Assessments and Application to Offshore Assets

Climate has always been a major concern for process safety – from design criteria considerations to impact on daily operations. Historical onshore events, such as the accidents at Fukushima (Kurokawa et al., 2012) and Arkema (Organic Peroxide Decomposition, Release, and Fire at Arkema Crosby Following Hurricane Harvey Flooding, CSB, 2017) highlight the critical role of extreme weather events on major accident hazards (MAH). Recognizing this, the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) released a monograph in 2019 focused on assessing and planning for natural hazards, emphasizing the importance of addressing extreme weather events in process safety. This issue has become even more urgent as climate change significantly impacts design conditions, potentially affecting structural integrity and operational restrictions.

In offshore assets, such as Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units and drilling rigs, climate risk is also a significant concern. For these units, climate risk is closely associated with structural integrity, as their design depends on parameters like significant wave height, surface current, and wind. It also impacts processes and operations, such as cargo tank venting, gas detector allocation, diving and ROV activities, and lifeboat and rescue boat launching. These impacts vary based on the structure's lifespan, geographic location, and the assessed climate change scenario. However, these risks are often overlooked and, when analyzed, are usually based on purely qualitative approaches, such as traditional HAZID (Hazard Identification) studies, which may not be the best method for assessing applicable climate risks.

Beyond the physical risks associated with climate events, there are also important transition risks related to climate risk assessment. The Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has recommended that companies, including those in the offshore industry, assess vulnerability to extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, the impacts of sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme weather events on coastal infrastructure, production facilities, and company operations. These recommendations are good practices for several industries but become mandatory for all organizations with listed debt or variable income to promote more informed investment decisions, lending, and insurance subscriptions.

Given the significant impact that climate risk has on process safety and its regulatory implications, this article aims to present a study basis for conducting climate risk assessments for offshore assets, considering the following steps:

• Step 1: Climate Change Risk Assessment: the first step is to select the asset's geographical coordinates to assess the exposure of that location to different climate parameters, such as maximum wave height, current speed, wind gusts, maximum and minimum temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation behavior. This assessment uses a digital tool based on the CMIP6 model, considering the five climate change scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• Step 2: Climate Hazard Identification: this step involves evaluating the climate risk based on the exposure results from the climate change risk assessment, considering the specific impacts that will arise from the climate exposure for that asset. The analysis covers the impact of those events on critical equipment and operations, design criteria, and vulnerable resources.
• Step 3: Mitigation, Adaptation and Resilience Plan: once the exposure and impact are properly analyzed in Steps 1 and 2, a framework for developing a mitigation, adaptation, and resilience plan is defined, based on best practices such as ISO 14091:2021.

The study reveals that further analyzing climate risk for offshore operations can significantly enhance the process safety and emergency readiness of these assets. By using offshore assets as a case study, it was possible to identify several scenarios that have a relevant impact on both safety and operations, often not covered in traditional process hazard analyses. The findings provide valuable theoretical and technical support for managing risks and improving the resilience of offshore assets to climate change.