2025 Spring Meeting and 21st Global Congress on Process Safety
(32f) Research on quantitative method of failure probability of crude oil pipeline based on Database
Author
Qian Lu - Presenter, China University of Petroleum (Huadong)
The risk assessment on oil and gas pipeline is an important part of pipeline process management, due to the uncertainty in the assessment, the results are often not accurate enough, which increases the difficulty of pipeline risk assessment. In order to enhance the accuracy of risk assessment, ensure the results of pipeline risk assessment are authentic and avoid excessive error between the results and the actual due to inaccurate data. By referring to the European long-distance oil pipeline database, this paper sorted out the historical data of all oil pipeline leakage accidents since the 1960s, sorted out the failure factors such as mechanical failure, misoperation, corrosion, natural force damage, third-party damage, and sorted out their basic failure probability. Abandoning the traditional idea of transforming the data content into quantitative indicators, the correction factor of failure data is calculated by using data fitting and fuzzy mathematics methods respectively. The results show the proposed risk assessment model can improve the accuracy of pipeline risk assessment results. The research results provide ideas for the failure probability assessment of crude oil pipeline in the process of establishment and operation, and reference for pipeline risk assessment and research.