(147a) Risk Approach for Urban Planning Around Chemical Plants

The Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA) are tools widely used in the permitting process, risk management and emergency response of fires, explosions and toxic clouds; typical accidental scenarios in process plants and in transportation of hazardous materials. Much has been development to improve mathematical models and calculation methods to further refine risk assessment, in an attempting to achieve more accurate results that can be applied on prevention and process control. However, despite all valuable information in the QRA for the risk judgment, its results are not easily understood, especially by those who are not in the industry environment or who are not risk expert.

Vulnerability maps are the most discussed results among stakeholders when the urban planning is on the table and up for debate. The main point is that there is no standardization on what would be a 'safe distance' to be adopted around chemical plants; that one based on the consequences of the accidental scenarios, or such based on iso-risk curves, which considers probabilistic elements. The dilemma stretches when the intolerable risk curves goes beyond industry boundaries and reach areas that have been occupied without urban control - typical situation in many countries in Latin America.

This article explores the academic production published in journals since the year 2000, and seek to understand the discussions that are being privileged in different times and places on the themes: 'risk maps', 'hazardous materials' and 'territory planning'. The research was complemented with interviews conducted in the Netherlands during the year 2017, with some experts and authors of papers. The article reveals that there are different approaches for risk mapping: deterministic, probabilistic, and hybrid, and show up that some new concepts are shifting the way of understanding and manage risks outside industrial fences, where people and environment are the greatest assets.