Meteorological conditions significantly shape ozone (O3) formation, driving much of the variability in surface ozone observations. Past studies have identified several key meteorological factors in addition to anthropogenic and biogenic emissions of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), as critical drivers of O3 production. Among the meteorological factors influencing surface O3 concentrations, past studies indicate temperature as a key driving factor, within the pseudo steady state (PSS) cycle for O3 production via NO2 photolysis. Understanding temperature changes, particularly in urban areas, is vital for grasping the broader implications of climate change and its impacts on ground level O3 concentrations. While the ozone-meteorological relationship is well-documented, its evolution through the influence of precursor reaction selectivity, based solely on rate constants, remain underexplored. Using an unsupervised variable selection and regression technique, we identified key meteorological forcings influencing warming in Connecticut over 40 years, leveraging the NCAR-USGS 4km CONUS regional hydroclimate reanalysis dataset. Our analysis revealed the role of urban heat island effect in amplifying background warming in some cities like Hartford in Connecticut by 0.06°C per decade compared to rural areas, a trend that is expected to influence ozone production and selection kinetics as temperatures rise. In this study, analysis of reaction selectivity using second-order rate constants in Arrhenius form was conducted to assess the effect of decadal rising July temperatures (i.e. 294 K to 297 K) over 40 years. This was done to evaluate the effect of altered chemical rates on key ozone formation and loss reaction mechanisms. Our preliminary findings indicate that the NO + O₃ reaction rate, representing the NO2 generation precursor in the PSS, increased from 1.84e-14 to 1.92e-14 cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻1 (~ 4 % increase) with NOₓ_over_VOC selectivity rising from 1.53 to 1.56. Conversely, the VOC-driven HO₂ + NO pathway saw its rate decrease from 8.18e-12 to 8.12e-12 cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹ (~ 1 % decrease), with VOC_over_NOₓ reaction selectivity declining from 6.53 to 6.40. Despite this decrease, VOC_over_NOₓ selectivity remained significantly higher than the maximum NOₓ_over_VOC selectivity, suggesting a persistent kinetic preference for VOC-driven pathways for NO2 generation. The persistent dominance of VOC_over_NOₓ selectivity, despite its decline, suggests that VOC-driven pathways remain kinetically significant, likely due to the temperature sensitivity of VOC-related rate constants, but the increasing NOₓ_over_VOC selectivity indicates a growing kinetic influence of NOₓ-driven reactions, possibly due to enhanced NOₓ cycling in the PSS. This kinetic shift has implications for air quality management. For instance, in a region where NOₓ driven reactions increasingly limit O3 formation, policies should prioritize understanding reaction rates to predict O3 trends, focusing on NOₓ-related pathways (e.g., NO + O₃, OH + NO₂) that dominate under warming conditions. These findings underscore the need to incorporate temperature-dependent kinetics as a qualitative tool to ensure adaptive strategies as climate-driven warming continues to reshape O3 formation dynamics.
