(101i) Regional analysis of U.S. collection and infrastructure investments for expanding post-consumer plastics recycling

This study analyzes the U.S. post-consumer plastics recycling supply chain, focusing on PET and HDPE, to assess infrastructure needs and scale, and identify key bottlenecks, and cost-drivers under current and increased plastics collection rate scenarios over a planning horizon from 2020 to 2050. While existing literature largely focuses on the economic and environmental analysis of plastics recycling, this study adopts an approach that integrates social factors with techno-economics and supply chain logistics to provide a more comprehensive assessment of the post-consumer plastics supply chain. Specifically, we use an agent-based model of household recycling behaviors under business as usual and increased access scenarios to estimate the current and increased future flows of post-consumer plastics at the county-level. We then use these estimates to evaluate the incremental costs from a marginal expansion in the capacities of collection, sorting/processing, and recycling facilities using a least-cost supply chain optimization approach. Our analysis considers mechanical recycling, pyrolysis, methanolysis, and incineration as candidate recycling pathways.

Results show that under current collection rates, the existing processing network cannot fully handle collected plastics due to capacity bottlenecks, particularly at material recovery facilities (MRFs). A relatively modest infrastructure expansion— $278 million investment — targeted primarily in West Coast states such as California, Oregon, and Nevada, can eliminate these bottlenecks while reducing overall transportation costs. Increased collection scenarios, driven by behavioral interventions, require a substantially higher investment of $3.78 billion. Notably, the majority of these additional costs stem from collection intervention phase (over 60%), which involves expenses for collection programs aimed at increasing collection rates and are followed by higher operational expenses at processing facilities and increased transport from collection centers to recycling endpoints. Across both scenarios, mechanical recycling remains the preferred pathway for minimizing total system costs. By identifying spatial bottlenecks, investment priorities, and cost drivers across the full recycling network, this study can inform targeted policy and infrastructure planning to enhance the viability, scalability, and resilience of national plastics recycling supply chain.