(237g) An Integrated Open-Source Framework for Accessing the Economic and Environmental Potential of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Decarbonizing the air transportation sector is one of the most challenging obstacles to mitigating climate change. Aviation currently accounts for roughly 3% of the global GHG emissions. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) can contribute towards substantial reductions in emissions from aviation without requiring significant changes to existing aircraft or infrastructure. One approach involves catalytically upgrading ethanol derived from lignocellulosic biomass into jet-range blendstocks, a process known as Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ). Conventional assessments of ATJ-derived SAF often rely on deterministic values of process inputs to estimate economic performance metrics such as the Minimum Selling Price (MSP) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR). However, this approach often overlooks the uncertainties in process variables, which can lead to incomplete or overly simplified interpretations of the economic and environmental sustainability of new technologies, emerging feedstocks, varying scales, and different deployment scenarios.

In this study, we develop an open-source refinery scale model leveraging BioSTEAM (Biorefinery Simulation and Techno-Economic Analysis Modules) for SAF production from bio-based ethanol. To validate our models, a process flowsheet using the same design inputs was developed on Aspen Plus V12.1 , and minimal differences in mass and energy balances indicated strong agreement between the agile model and traditional Aspen model results. The case study shows that the biorefinery has the capacity of producing 8.14 MM gal SAF per year with a minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of USD 8.25 per gallon. The economic feasibility of deploying ATJ biorefineries at scale, and the cost of producing hydrogen required for SAF production were investigated through different scenarios. Scenario analysis highlighted the critical importance of focusing on decentralizing ATJ biorefineries, and of producing hydrogen off-site via Autothermal Reforming alongside carbon capture and storage. Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients were used to establish a probabilistic sustainability framework. Through this framework, the percentage of scenarios offering an optimal combination of reduced life cycle impacts and improved profitability relative to conventional jet fuel were identified.

Overall, this study reveals improvement opportunities for SAF biorefinery research and development (R&D) efforts across different scales. An open-source tool enables the evaluation of the financial and environmental viability landscape of ATJ technologies beyond the base case discussed in this study, which can be used by a broader community to support researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders in identifying key sustainability drivers to inform decision-making in this field