2025 AIChE Annual Meeting

(709e) Field Demonstration of Cloud-Based Supervisory Economic Model Predictive Control for Space Conditioning Heat Pumps

Authors

Hossein Kalantar Neyestanaki - Presenter, University of California, Davis
Loren dela Rosa, California State University Long Beach
Caton Mande, University of California, Davis
Matthew Ellis, University of California, Davis
Heat pumps (HPs) are emerging as a key technology for electrifying space and water heating systems, decarbonizing buildings by leveraging an increasingly renewable-powered grid, and reducing energy consumption through high efficiency [1]. However, widespread HP adoption will increase grid demand, potentially straining the grid, particularly for residential buildings, which currently account for 36% of U.S. electricity consumption, with heating and cooling systems contributing significantly to peak electricity demand [2-4]. Today, most residential HPs rely on standard on/off thermostats—rule-based controllers (RBCs)—which do not account for future system behavior, system dynamics, and grid signals such as time-varying electricity rates. This leads to suboptimal HP operation with respect to its associated energy cost and grid stress, highlighting the need for predictive control strategies to optimize HP performance in response to dynamic grid signals.

Economic model predictive control (EMPC) is an advanced control strategy that uses a dynamic model of the system to predict future system behavior and determines the control actions that minimize an economic cost function while satisfying operational limitations (constraints). While numerous simulation studies have demonstrated EMPC’s effectiveness in shifting HP loads to reduce energy costs [5, 6], field demonstration of EMPC in residential buildings with air-to-air HPs remains limited [7-10]. More field demonstrations in different climate zones are needed with EMPC to fully validate its performance in real-world applications.

To this end, we present closed-loop results from a recent field demonstration of our cloud-based supervisory EMPC framework, designed to co-optimize expected electricity costs and grid-associated greenhouse gas emissions from HP operation. Because multiple setpoint trajectories often yield similar HP behavior, this flexibility can lead to frequent setpoint changes, which may be undesirable from an occupant comfort perspective. To mitigate this, we formulate the EMPC with additional penalties to limit setpoint changes. We present the cloud-based EMPC architecture and detail how it addresses practical challenges such as intermittent connectivity and manual setpoint overrides by residents. We conducted the field demonstration in two multi-family residential units in California Climate Zone 12, each equipped with cloud-connected thermostats. To validate the performance of the EMPC framework, we compare data collected under the EMPC framework to data collected under a fixed-setpoint RBC strategy, evaluating electricity cost, temperature comfort violations, and the frequency of setpoint changes.

References:

[1] L. Bernard, A. Hackett, R. D. Metcalfe, and A. Schein, “Decarbonizing Heat: The Impact of Heat Pumps and a Time-of-Use Heat Pump Tariff on Energy Demand,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Tech. Rep. w33036, 2024.

[2] U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Monthly Energy Review,” U.S. Department of Energy, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec7.pdf

[3] U.S. Department of Energy, “Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050: A National Blueprint for the Buildings Sector,” Apr. 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-12/bto-decarbonizing-us-economy-2050-122724.pdf

[4] Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, “Residential Buildings Factsheet,” Pub. No. CSS01-08, 2024.

[5] T. Q. Péan, J. Salom, and R. Costa-Castelló, “Review of control strategies for improving the energy flexibility provided by heat pump systems in buildings,” Journal of Process Control, vol. 74, pp. 35–49, 2019.

[6] Y. Yao and D. K. Shekhar, “State of the art review on model predictive control (MPC) in Heating Ventilation and Air-conditioning (HVAC) field,” Building and Environment, vol. 200, p. 107952, 2021.

[7] E. N. Pergantis, N. Al Theeb, P. Dhillon, J. P. Ore, D. Ziviani, E. A. Groll, and K. J. Kircher, “Field demonstration of predictive heating control for an all-electric house in a cold climate,” Applied Energy, vol. 360, p. 122820, 2024.

[8] D. Wang, Y. Chen, W. Wang, C. Gao, and Z. Wang, “Field test of Model Predictive Control in residential buildings for utility cost savings,” Energy and Buildings, vol. 288, p. 113026, 2023.

[9] B. Dong and K. P. Lam, “A real-time model predictive control for building heating and cooling systems based on the occupancy behavior pattern detection and local weather forecasting,” Building Simulation, vol. 7, pp. 89–106, Feb. 2014.

[10] A. Afram and F. Janabi-Sharifi, “Supervisory model predictive controller (MPC) for residential HVAC systems: Implementation and experimentation on archetype sustainable house in Toronto,” Energy and Buildings, vol. 154, pp. 268–282, 2017.