Copper is a ubiquitous mineral in many decarbonization technologies and power connections but faces high supply chain risk from drought and water scarcity.1 In the United States, there are currently about 20 active copper mines, producing over 1.1 million metric tons of contained copper per year.3 Most of these mines are set to continue operation for decades to come and those that are nearing retirement are investigating expansion opportunities. Plus, there are dozens of proposed mining projects to tap into the rich copper reserves in midwestern and western states. Yet, many of these projects, both active and proposed, share water resources and hydrological basins in an already water-scarce area.
Methods: In this work, we will analyze how future water availability and consumption of copper mining influences copper production in the United States through the year 2050. We will identify active and proposed copper mines using the S&P Global database and will leverage mining documentation, technical reports, and life cycle analyses to project water consumption for each mine. We will model competing water consumption from other industries (manufacturing, residential, etc.) using historic water consumption data and projected growth trends. We will assess water availability under different climate scenarios using existing water models such as the Water Supply Stress Index from the US Department of Agriculture and current water data from the US Geological Survey. Using these climate and water availability scenarios, we will develop a time-series of copper mining water consumption and estimate how many and which mines might be at risk for water availability.
Results and Conclusions: Ultimately, we will estimate which mines are likely to begin operation by 2050 and their respective copper production. Of these mines, we will determine which ones will be under the greatest water stress. We will implore if this domestic copper production is sufficient to meet decarbonization technology needs and climatic goals and discuss alternatives if demand is short. This work will provide a methodology applicable to other supply chains and nations along with valuable, climate-driven insights into the future US copper supply chain.
References:
(1) International Renewable Energy Agency. Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials; Abu Dhabi, 2023. https://mc-cd8320d4-36a1-40ac-83cc-3389-cdn-endpoint.azureedge.net/-/me….
(2) Odell, S. D. Hydrosocial Displacements: Sources and Impacts of Collaboration as a Response to Water Conflict near Three Chilean Mines. Resour. Policy 2021, 74, 102305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102305.
(3) U.S. Geological Survey. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025; 2025. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2025.