Assessing the Economic Benefits of Technology Pathways for Plastic Recycling

Currently, millions of tonnes of plastic products are produced annually, and only a small percentage of this production is recycled or repurposed after its initial use. This results in plastic waste being sent to landfills or into the environment, which produces environmental hazards. When selecting technologies for plastics recycling, two important variables to consider are the profits and the resulting environmental impact. Therefore, it is essential to develop a clear understanding of the economics behind emerging and conventional recycling technologies and the expected profitability of these technologies when deployed at different scales. This work proposes a computational framework to quantify uncertainty in the economic performance of plastic recycling technologies, including pyrolysis, solvent-based dissolution, and mechanical recycling. We compiled capital and operating expenditures, as well as product selling prices, for different plant sizes from the literature and reports from recycling facilities. We used these inputs to estimate revenues and net profits while capturing the influence of plant size on economic outcomes. Results indicate that at intermediate and larger scales, pyrolysis demonstrates a stronger profitability profile, benefiting from economies of scale and higher potential revenue streams. These findings underscore the importance of scale in shaping the economic feasibility of recycling pathways. The proposed framework can help inform investors, policymakers, and industry stakeholders when selecting technologies and designing facilities to advance a circular plastics economy.