(566g) Energy Consumption - Carbon Emissions Analysis and Technology Layout Optimization for Plastics Industry at the Life Cycle: Country-Based Study

The plastics industry is a significant consumer of fossil raw materials. It currently consumes 8% of the world's oil and will escalate to consuming 20% of the world's total oil supply by 2050. In addition to the production process, the transportation, consumption and reprocessing of plastics also generate significant energy and carbon emissions. Especially in the reprocessing process, the large consumption of single-use plastic products has led to a sharp increase in plastic waste. Therefore, promoting the stable and sustainable development of the plastics industry is of paramount significance for safeguarding global economic development. With the continuous expansion of future plastics production scale, it becomes crucial to reasonably and accurately predict the future development trend of plastics production. To address the high energy consumption and carbon emission issues throughout the entire life cycle process of the plastics industry, multidimensional interventions are imperative across all stages. These interventions aim to optimize the technological layout and formulate development plans for energy conservation and emission reduction in the future plastics industry. This work is centered on predicting the developmental trajectory of plastics production and conducting simulations alongside multi-objective optimization to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions in the plastics industry. The CRITIC combination model of plastics production and the LEAP model based on the results of LCA analysis are constructed. Through scenario simulations, full life cycle cost-effectiveness models and multi-objective optimization frameworks are developed for analyzing the economic viability of energy-saving and emission reduction initiatives in the future plastics industry. These models further aid in optimizing the technological landscape of the plastics industry under various objectives. By applying this methodology to China's plastics sector, we forecast the country's plastics production, full life-cycle energy consumption, and carbon emissions up to 2030. Additionally, the potential of different technologies for energy conservation and emission reduction are assessed. CCUS technology and clean energy substitution are necessary ways to reduce emissions, with the net investment costs of 38 and 19 dollar/tCO₂e, respectively. Improving the utilization rate of plastic waste meets the requirements of industry development with low energy consumption and carbon emissions, but its initial cost will be up to 134 dollar/tCO₂e, which requires policy support and enterprise financing. In 2030, the net investment demand of the plastic industry will be 2.46 billion yuan. Our analysis presents several alternative transformations within the plastic industry, offering decision-makers in private enterprises and utilities maximal flexibility in decision-making processes. Meanwhile, this approach embodies the essence of creative innovation necessary to confront formidable challenges.