Modeling and Extrapolation of Pjm Renewable Energy Consumption

As alternative energy sources become increasingly popular in the United States, it is more important than ever that location-specific weather and geological data be accurately estimated. Integrated power systems used to offset conventional fossil fuel use require proper operational planning to ensure power grid stabilization amidst variable renewable resource production. Within the eastern US, the PJM regional transmission organization facilitates electricity transmission throughout Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland metropolitan areas—many of which have high wind generation potential. The goal of this research is to extrapolate wind generation potential data for a candidate location from a validated model of a similar nearby wind farm, and utilize PJM power demand data — collected by an automated MATLAB-PI connection infrastructure — to estimate the largest possible consumption offset by wind use.

To reach this goal, a MATLAB script was written to access PJM load, wind, and solar generation and potential data in five-minute intervals via web application programming interface calls. Simultaneously, attributes of this data for time, location, and value were written to data-specific elements in a local PI database through the PI-Software Development Kit. A candidate location within the PJM region of Western Maryland was chosen for further exploration due to its topological similarities and closeness to West Virginia. Proportional extrapolation will be completed based on validated models of West Virginia wind facilities generated by the NREL System Advisor Model (SAM). The extrapolated wind potential data will then be used with collected PJM load data to note how potential generation could offset current fossil fuel-based electricity production.

The MATLAB-PI connection system was found to be successful in its continuous PJM data loading into the localized PI database. Results for extrapolated wind models for Western Maryland will be discussed and evaluated in terms of their offset for current production rates. Current limitations of this work are noted in the lack of node-specific load data within the PJM region, which is conversely seen in the extrapolated and validated SAM models. Future work aims to optimize wind farm parameters to sustain wind expansion based on existing technology and grid demand trends.