2020 Virtual AIChE Annual Meeting

(514z) Global Warming Effects over the Sustainability of a Dynamic Integrated Economic-Ecological-Social Model

Authors

Rodriguez-Gonzalez, P. T., Tecnologico Nacional de Mexico en Celaya
Frausto-Hernandez, S., Tecnologico Nacional de Mexico en Aguascalientes
The current economic system, based on maximum production, consumption and unlimited exploitation of resources entails a situation of environmental wear that is unsustainable. The recognition of this situation has derived in the search for actions to promote a global economic development compatible with environmental conservation, equity, and social justice; arising, in this manner, the so-called sustainable development, where the environment, economy, and society become equally crucial elements to welfare. One of the biggest problems that humanity has faced and required this integral approach to solving it is global warming, derived from an excessive dependence of fossil fuels.

The study of sustainability of human ecosystems presents one of the current biggest challenges for science and decision-makers due to its multidisciplinary nature and the wide diversity of approaches that can be taken or involved. The use of mathematical models has become a potential tool for the representation and study of human ecosystems, offering a great capacity for understanding their behavior and analyze possible scenarios without compromising the integrity of real systems. Nowadays, despite there are in literature several ecosystem models, they still are far to have a complete description of all mechanisms that comprehend such systems. The continuous improvement and updating of existing models is a crucial step to achieving a more realistic representation of the circumstances and state of particular ecosystems that allows obtaining more accurate results and projections, enhancing the decision-making process.

In this work, we present an enhanced ecological-economic-social model based on the dynamic compartmental model presented by Rodriguez-Gonzalez et al. (2018). Our approach extends the applicability of the model to global warming analysis by the incorporation of temperature feedback. The model is capable to measure the GHG emissions of the system; then, the feedback was developed focusing on the existing relationship between such emissions, the increase of mean temperature and the growth rate of vegetation, as the first biotic factor within the food chain. An ideal system with dynamic stability and constant temperature is used as a study case. The inclusion of the GHG effects has notable consequences over the sustainability of the system; the temperature grows quickly, affecting the growth of plants; this influence is fast spread in a snowball effect over the entire system, changing the system performance and leading it to collapse. The results show the importance of considering the temperature feedback in ecosystem models.