(148b) Scenarios Simulation and Forecast of Urban Economy-Resources-Environment System By Using System Dynamics Model

The coordinated development of Economy-Resources-Environment (ERE) is a key component of sustainable development. Based on the connotation and framework of sustainable development of urban ERE, this paper employs the theory and methodology of System Dynamics (SD) to elucidate the economic growth constrained from urban resource depletion and environmental degradation. Herein, resource, environment, and technology subsystems are combined with economy subsystem into a Cobb-Douglas production. Meanwhile, five scenarios, named current, resources, environment, technology and economy, are designed to compare the simulation results, so that the effects of different scenarios on the urban ERE can be emphasized. The results demonstrate that the current development of Chongqing is unsustainable, and the optimization of any one subsystem cannot realize the sustainable development. It turns out that the transformation of the economic development mode is the only way to sustainable development in Chongqing, and feasible transformation ways of the economic development mode have been put forward.