(629b) Simulation and Uncertainty Optimization of Fuel Ethanol System

Biomass energy system is a complex system that uses a variety of raw materials producing products in various processes. In the economic environment, sectoral policies, distribution and price of raw materials, market price of fossil energy, and manufacturing techniques are changing frequently. Therefore, how to choose the combination of the materials, products and techniques, how to determine the scale and layout of an enterprise, how to design an industry chain to realize the energy conservation and emission reduction, improve the overall efficiency is an urgent problem in the progress of current biomass energy industry. This paper has studied the following aspects:

(1)Developing a distributed simulation platform Bio-ESAS of fuel ethanol; (2)Making a life cycle MFA(Material flow analysis), EFA(energy flow analysis) and VFA(value stream analysis) of fuel ethanol system using different food, cellulose, sweet sorghum, sugar cane, cassava other raw materials, and simulating the main process with Bio-ESAS to identify the key factors affecting the system efficiency; (3)Constructing probability models and quantitative prediction model of uncertain factors impacting fuel ethanol system such as market prices, raw material supply, etc; (4)Constructing a multi-objective and uncertain-optimization model for fuel ethanol system, then solving; (5)Exploring the development roadmap of fuel ethanol in China.