(171b) Challenges to Water Quality Sustainability From Chronic PAH Pollution in An Urban Estuary

High-density development offers several sustainability advantages, including reduced per-capita energy consumption, but the impacts of urbanization on chronic water pollution must also be considered. The objective of this research is to provide a systematic analysis of the chronic sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contamination of the New York/New Jersey Harbor estuary as a function of demographics, land use, and infrastructure. First, primary emissions of PAHs were determined for both point and non-point sources to air, land, and water for 15 Priority PAHs for each of the 42 counties in the New York Harbor watershed. The results show that the dominant primary emission sources are all atmospheric, including residential fireplaces, motor vehicles, and volatilization from creosote-treated wood. For example, over 95% of primary benzo[a]pyrene emissions in the region originate from domestic fireplaces, with the great majority of these emissions coming from predominantly rural counties a great distance from the harbor. Appreciating that rates of contaminant transmission will vary greatly by compound, distance, and media, chronic loadings of PAHs to the harbor were modeled by combining estimates of primary emission with individualized measures of regional transmission potential. Results show harbor loadings originate as a combination of diffuse primary sources to the atmosphere (50%), land (40%), and water (10%). The leading sources for harbor loadings include transportation-related sources; volatilization, abrasion, and wear of creosote- and coal tar-containing products; and residential wood combustion. A comparison of predicted and measured PAH concentrations in regional air and water and provide an external validation on the analysis. Substantial differences in primary emission patterns and transmission rates highlight the need for systems-based modeling approach. This work offers a tool to identify pollution prevention and transmission control strategies that will most effectively promote the sustainable management of urban water resources.