Performance Forecasting Method for Gas Supply Chain

The transportation system for natural gas consists of a complex network of pipelines and compression stations that is designed to quickly and efficiently transport natural gas from its origin, to areas of high natural gas demand. With increased adoption of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) technology, this already complex network has been extended to include LNG storage and transport supporting increased global transport and usage of natural gas.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is natural gas cooled until it becomes a liquid and then stored at atmospheric pressure. After converting natural gas to LNG, its volume is reduced by about 600 times which allows transportation to demanding areas via LNG cargo ships. Once delivered to its destination, LNG is re-gasified (warmed back into its original gaseous state) and sent through pipelines for distribution to homes and industrial sectors.

Strategic gas planning requires a balance to be achieved between successfully satisfying consumer gas demand, whilst minimising costs both in terms of capital and operational expenditure. From the customersâ?? perspective, gas supply is quite different compared to an oil supply scenario. Gas customers typically require their gas feeds continuously with limited scope for providing storage to compensate for upstream outages. The consequences of not delivering the demanded gas can not only result in economic damage, but can be further exacerbated by possible penalty payments and loss of reputation. Simplifying: the gas must be delivered to the consumer continuously without failure. Hence the gas supply to customers - whether they are domestic consumers, desalination plants, power plants, or LNG plants â?? needs to be very high (if not 100%).

This article presents a method to assist on understanding the system performance of such complex assets.