Analysis of Major Accidents in European Chemical Industries

After a series of major accidents in the 1970s and 1980s, such as Flixborough(1974), Seveso(1976), and Bhopal(1984), accident database systems were created in Europe. The European major accident reporting system (MARS) has been developed and operated since 1984 by the Major Accident Hazard Bureau (MAHB) within the framework of the SEVESO directives. Other European databases concerning chemical accidents also exit, such as Major Hazard Incident Data Service (MHIDAS) in UK, Failure and Accidents Technical information System (FACTS) in the Netherlands, Central Major Accident Notification System (ZEMA) in Germany, Analysis Research and Information on Accidents (ARIA) in France.

In the paper, European accident databases are reviewed and the characteristics of these databases are compared. Based on major accidents of chemical industries in MARS database, this paper presents an analysis of some characteristics of European chemical accidents. Bayesian theory is used to model the rate of occurrence of accidents and to formulate probability density distributions for their relevant causes (e.g. equipment failure, Human errors, etc.). Systematic analyses of the databases help to avoid similar accidents in the future.